Don’t Assume – like we did in 2000 and 2004

In 2000, the election was Al Gore’s to lose (he won, but still lost).  We assumed that he would win.  In 2004, it was John Kerry’s to lose.  Again – we assumed he would win.  In fact, a couple of days before the election, because of all of the calls/contacts his staff had made, his team thought that, of course, they would win Ohio.  They lost. 

SO – what happened in those races? We ASSUMED.  And you know what happens when you Ass U Me!  Not enough turnout.  I believe that a large part of that was that the positive polls for Gore/Kerry bred complacency.  If some people think it’s a slam dunk and have something else to do on Election Day, they’ll blow off voting. 

If I were on the McCain campaign (as my mother would say: “G-d forbid, poo…poo…poo”) – I would be working every angle and would actually point to a Barack lead as a way to rally my base to turnout as well as a way to lull Obama supporters into complacency to not turnout.

Today, I had 3 separate people talk about the latest polls and suggest that Obama has it sewn up – or that it’s a slam dunk.  On the one hand – I’m excited to see people making those decisions.  On the other hand, the déjà vu gives me hives.

It’s critical that people internalize and then spread the emphasis that Polls Don’t Vote – People Do.  No matter what the spread in the polls, we need every single Obama supporter to vote – bar none.  And we need everybody to help with turnout (ideas below).  I am usually very optimistic, but I’m drawing on every paranoid particle in my body to make sure  that our collective naïveté doesn’t become our third major loss in a row.  We have to assume that there will be monkey business at the polls and that there will be a Bradley Effect and that to win by even a slim margin, he has to get a much higher percent of the votes.

Plus – in WA state, in particular, we need to get the turnout so that we help our Governor, Darcy Burner and others on the ticket win.

The great news is that the Obama campaign has an outstanding plan and is keenly aware of past campaigns’ mistakes.  They have the largest staff ever, the largest volunteer base ever and the largest voter protection team ever.  Here is a comparison between campaigns from my blog: http://suzilevine.wordpress.com/2008/09/21/2004-v-2008-what-is-different-btw-kerry-obamas-campaign/

SO _ what can you do?  Make a contribution.  We have an event with Joe Biden coming up that starts at $1K.  Obviously, it’d be great if everyone could come to that – even if it’s a huge stretch.  But even if you can’t make it, now is the time to give all that you can.  There’s no more “I’m going to wait a little bit more” or “I’ll be giving next week.”  The campaign needs to know that they have the resources to bring this campaign home.  Below is sign up information for the event and here is a link to simply make an online contribution (this tracks it as one coming from the Pacific Northwest).  Please share this with everyone you know who you think cares about the outcome of this election. https://donate.barackobama.com/page/contribute/ovfnorthwest?custom1=Get%20With%20The%20Program

Official sign-up & logistics info for the Biden event on Oct 19^th  Great News – $1K level available!

-           When: 4:00 pm – Reception (Metropolitan Ballroom); 6:00 pm – Dinner

-           Where: At the Downtown Seattle Sheraton, 1400 Sixth Avenue, Seattle, Washington

-           Contribution levels per individual:

-           General Reception: $1000

-           Attend Dinner & Reception: Contribute $10,000

-           Chair Dinner: Contribute $25,000 or raise $50,000 (Chairs will receive a photo opportunity. Maximum contribution is $30,800 – this goes to the Obama Victory Fund)

-           RSVP Required

-           To RSVP online for the dinner, please visit: https://donate.barackobama.com/page/contribute/Oct19Dinner?custom1=Suzi%20LeVine (please do it through me/this link so that we can properly track it.)

-           To RSVP for the reception, please visit: https://donate.barackobama.com/page/contribute/Oct19Reception?custom1=Suzi%20LeVine

-           For more information or to RSVP contact Melissa Schwartz or Mike Gilmore at 206-624-9511, ext. 13. Email us at MSchwartz@BarackObama.com or GilmoreM@DNC.org.