Jews & 2008 Election: post DNC

Note: www.seattlejclc.org has a lot broader information on Obama’s legislative history and, in Rahm Emanuel’s talk – there’s info that really clarifies how Obama is great and McCain is bad for Israel.

 

Over the course of the democratic national convention, there were many different events that examined the Jewish vote in this election.  From statistical voting analyses to foreign policy stances, it’s clear that Obama is the MUCH better candidate – AND (to be optimistic about it) has tremendous room to grow in terms of support from Jews in key battleground states.  It was also clear that, not only is he the better candidate for Israel, McCain would be detrimental.  There were several sessions I attended that explicitly spoke to this, but also saw a lot in terms of presence in general sessions/speeches.  With McCain’s choice of Palin – who is bad for the Jewish community in a number of ways (see my blog post) – we especially can’t afford to let McCain win in November.   

 

What follows is my attempt to synthesize and comment on these.

 

Key Actionables from what follows:

• Winning is entirely within view and an effective strategy has been very well laid out by the Obama campaign – but will take an unprecedented amount of effort and resources.  We NEED YOU! Call/email me to set up a discussion where I can take you through David Plouffe’s (Obama campaign manager) analysis
• Every Jew who can, should be prepared to go to Florida or Nevada in September and/or October.
• Contribute as much money as you humanly can.  How much would you pay to not have this country head further to the right?  How much would you pay for more judges like Ruth Bader Ginsburg instead of Alito or Scalia?  Email me  about what you can give – with the Obama Victory Fund – you can actually contribute up to $28,500 (and even more with a differently structured giving campaign).  When November 5^th comes, you don’t want to be sitting there wondering, what else you could have done/contributed.
• If you can’t travel, there are many things you can do for the local efforts – but also phone banking and calling into the battleground states.  Contact me and I’ll get you specifically signed up/hooked into these volunteer activities.

Synthesis:

Statistically – the Jews truly matter in Florida and Nevada and somewhat matter in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado and Virginia.  This is because, right now, Obama is down around 62% among the Jewish community, but they voted democrat in 2004 at about 87%.  If we’re able to bring that 61% number up closer to the 87% number in those states (especially Nevada and Florida) – the number of people affected is material and the race close enough in those states that we’ll win. 

 

On Israel – From a position standpoint – for some reason, there are many who believe that Bush has been good for Israel.  Let’s just say – the Republican marketers have been very successful in peddling a lie.  Over the past 8 years, the situation in the Middle East and Israel’s security has decayed substantially.  A lot of this can be chalked up to the US’ involvement in Iraq and the weakening of America’s military and psychological strength worldwide.  The tangible effects of this have been:

1)      Iran was nowhere with a nuclear program 8 years ago. By having the US keep its focus elsewhere, Iran has been able to develop their program literally under the radar and without concern for any repercussions.

2)      It was Bush’s administration that forced Israel to hold Palestinian elections and forced Israel to include Hamas unconditionally. This was the turning point towards legitimacy without global responsibility for Hamas.  Obama, on the other hand, knew that the elections were a bad idea – and he mailed Condoleeza Rice to ask if she could, at the very least, require Hamas to renounce terrorism and recognize Israel.  The US did neither (despite the fact that, just months prior, they worked with Afghanistan on their constitution and required the Afghanis to mention that Al Qaeda was banned from participating. 

Lastly – you can look at the fact that the US has not been instrumental in Israel’s talks with Hamas, Hezbollah or even Syria.  That’s bad for Israel’s and America’s security! 

 

BUT _ Jews aren’t just about Israel.  We care about people and the messages and policies shared throughout the various speeches and events were consistent in their alignment with Jewish values of Tikkun Olam and treating people equally.  Obama is in line with that sentiment.  McBush is not.

 

Detailed notes:

• NJDC (National Jewish Democratic Council) panel on Jews voting
  • Anna Greenberg (VP Greenberg, Quindland Rosner Research)
    • 87% of Jews voted for a democrat in 2004. 
    • Older Jews are more conservative
    • In April, a Gallup poll showed Obama with 61% of the Jewish vote and Clinton at 66%.  In June/July, it was 62% for Obama.
  • Ed Lasky (runs the website The American Thinker – note – I won’t put a link here because I don’t want to enhance his Google search ranking.  The website is a vile source of lies and smears against Obama and was one of the sources sited in the first round of email attacks against him throughout 2007.  In many of his articles, he misquotes real people. Frankly – I was shocked and appalled that he was included in this panel and sent a note to the NJDC folks saying as much.)
    • He spewed the drivel that part of why Obama and Clinton are down is because McCain is being appreciated.  (subsequently debunked by FL state reps Geller & Nan Rich
    • The 7 states where Jews matter: FL, Nevada, PA, MI, Co, VA and Ohio
  • Either Mark Mellman or Stuart Rothenberg (I forget) pointed out that the largest growth state for Jews is Nevada.  There, the race is close enough that by bringing the Jewish community up from the 61% to where previous highs for other candidates have been (87%) will have a material impact on the outcome in Nevada – a key battleground state.
  • All agreed that Biden’s affect hasn’t been measured yet.
  • An additional good trend in Florida is in the growth of the Puerto Rican communities – who tend to vote democratic.
• JCLC meeting
  • Rep Rahm Emanuel reiterated his points from his trip to Seattle (he has great response points to the questions around what makes Obama better for the Jews on Israel
  • Rep. Robert Wexler
  • • Gave a fiery speech that added on top of  Rep. Emanuel’s statements – calling out that, when the US was helping Afghanistan draft its constitution, the US lawyers actively precluded Al Qaeda from their elections on the grounds that they are terrorists, less than a year later, the administration didn’t preclude Hamas from the Palestinian elections (didn’t even require them to renounce terrorism and recognize the state of Israel)
    • Asked whether selling $20Billion of advanced weapons to the Arab states is in Israel’s best interest.
    • Called out that the Bush administration has coupled Israeli support with that other Arab state weapons support – and contrasted that with Obama who, in his AIPAC speech, affirmed that Israel funding should stand on its own.
    • Obama is the sponsor of the best sanction legislation against Iran – McCain has not weighed in yet.
    • Getting off of foreign oil habit will do the most to assiste Israel’s national security (Obama’s 10 year plan)
    • Where was Iran 7 years ago with a nuclear program: Nowhere.  It’s was because we had so much focus on Iraq that Iran was able to develop what they did.
    • Obama did an extraordinary job in Israel – even Bibi Netanyahu said he agrees with Obama’s approach
    • Believes that intergenerational contact is  critical