David Plouffe Strategy Update

David Plouffe

Fundamentally – the objective was to have as many paths to 270 on election day as possible – don’t define the campaign by Ohio and Florida

 

Latest balance of states:

Obama:

  • 207 – Strong Obama (WA & OR now in strong Obama territory – as is Michigan)  includes several others – but these ones are the most interesting in having moved off of the lean Obama or battleground map)
  • 70 – Lean Obama (Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Virginia are new to this list and that’s very exciting!). 
    • Note New Hampshire is in this list.  Comically – the McCain campaign is deploying Palin there – even though her favorable:unfavorable ratings are 36%favorable to 56%unfavorable
    • In Pennsylvania – the Obama campaign is “playing whack-a-mole” because there are 4 organizations doing crazy anti-obama ads relatively under the radar.  No one is watching Obama’s back doing other  advertising so they’re having to respond themselves – but feeling really good about it.
    • It’s critical having Virginia lean Obama (note –  that’s where McCain’s headquarters is)
    • NOTE – McCain’s pulling out of Michigan wasn’t so much about Michigan as it was about his now needing to defend in a big way in states like North Carolina, Indiana & Missouri

McCain 

  • 108 – Strong McCain
  • 52 – Lean McCain – GA, WV (which was shown as Obama +5 in the most recent poll and to which Palin is traveling tomorrow), SC, LA, MS, AR, ND

Battleground

  • Nevada – will be close – have a slight lead and, for the first time, a registration lead
  • Montana – dead heat.  Added the most registrants on a per capita basis
  • Colorado – almost in Virginia category – will be a big battle
  • MO & IN – dead heats and the RNC & McCain folks are traveig there.  it’s great that we’re distracting their money and time to these markets
  • Ohio – we now have a lead, but it’ll be close.  We like who the undecideds are in the state.  The turnout that Bush got in 2004 was extraordinary  – but McCain has to have an unbelievable turnout compared to Bush – unlikely
  • North Carolina – will also be close.  The republicans were ignoring it but are now having to allocate resources there instead of in PA
  • Florida – again, it’ll be close.  The Obama campaign has been doing lots of advertising – whereas McCain just went up with advertising

 

Overall –

 

                                     

 
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